Assessment
No matter which proposal is eventually adopted, it is
apparent that some level of tax increase, benefit decrease
or a combination of both will be needed to make the
SSTF solvent through the rest of this century (although
Robert Reich, former Secretary of Labor with responsibility
for the Social Security system under the Clinton Administration,
notes that the SSTF deficit may never materialize if
we assume that the US economy will continue to grow
through the rest of the 21st century at its historic
average rate of 3.2% rather than the rates used by the
SSTF actuaries of 2.7% through 2014 declining to 1.8%
by 2079).
Congress will struggle in the months to come with the
question of which Americans should bear the greater
burden of these changes and whether private accounts
are part of the solution. As C. Eugene Steuerle, a senior
fellow at the Urban Institute and an expert on Social
Security reform, put it, "One way or another, somebody's
going to have to pay. I'm guessing it will be the middle
class and the upper class."
Alert - If you think the Social Security debate
is complex, prepare for an even bigger challenge the
Medicare Trust Fund deficit. According to the Social
Security Trustees 2005 Annual Report (available at www.socialsecurity.gov
or www.socsec.org), the Medicare Hospital Insurance
Trust Fund will be exhausted by 2020. To bring it into
balance during the next 75 years would require "a
107% increase in program income or an immediate 48%
reduction in program outlays (or some combination of
the two)". If no corrective action is taken, the
Hospital Insurance Trust Fund will be able to pay only
27% of benefits by the end of the 75- year lookout period.
More information will be provided in the months ahead
as this issue moves toward center stage. Top...
SOCIAL SECURITY
FACT SHEET April
WARNING: Social Security privatization is not yet
defeated. Beware of new distracting tactics and language
Solvency First: Recent surveys indicate that
Americans in growing numbers believe Social Security
faces financial difficulties. Yet polls also indicate
the public is increasingly skeptical of the President's
call for voluntary personal accounts. SOLVENCY, not
privatization, of the Social Security system does need
to be addressed. Senators and members of Congress from
both parties have been discussing ways to guarantee
the financial future of the system which may include
one or more changes such as tax increases, adjustments
in the levels at which payroll taxes are assessed, changes
in the age for eligibility, potential reductions in
benefits and other possible solutions. However, so far
the broader debate over ensuring Social SecurityÕs long-term
solvency has stalled over opposition to partial privatization.
Bush's Flip Flop: After failing to convince
the American people that Social Security requires private
accounts to save it, President Bush has "flip-flopped"
and changed his strategy. Now he says that private accounts
are part of "The Ownership Society." Since
the polls tell him that Americans donÕt like the privatization
idea, he has taken to calling them "personal accounts"
as if that would change the substance of his plan. Democrats
have said they would be much more inclined to embrace
the private accountsÑthe signature item of the PresidentÕs
proposed Social Security overhaulif such accounts
were treated as an add-on. Rep. Sandy Levin, the senior
Democrat on the House Ways and Means Social Security
subcommittee, said in the Democratic Party's weekly
radio address, "The President's proposals to divert
Social Security money to private accounts move us in
the wrong direction. They are a roadblockstanding
in the way of bipartisan efforts to strengthen this
vital program for all future generations."
Beware: While the whole issue of Social Security
is still very much in flux, we urge you to beware of
the President's dangerous remarks about the Social Security
Trust Fund. The President and other leading spokesmen
for the Administration say that the Trust Fund assets
are not "real" because they consist of US
Government Treasury Bonds, which are IOU's and not hard
cash. Yet, the President is quite content to have the
governments of China, Japan and other major trading
partners continue to buy these same US Government Treasury
Bonds to support our trade deficit. If you asked knowledgeable
investors, they would certainly say that these bonds
are one of the most secure investments available today
anywhere on earth, yet President Bush, Vice-President
Cheney and others continue to talk about them as if
they are worthless. As stated in a recent New York Times
editorial, "Social Security takes in more money
than it needs to pay current beneficiaries, and the
excess is invested in Treasury securities. They carry
the same legal and political obligations as all other
forms of Treasury debt, every penny of which has always
been paid in full and on time. Mr. Bush wants Americans
to believe that the trust fund is a joke. But, if the
trust fund is a joke, so is the full faith and credit
of the United States." The Social Security Trust
Fund is not bankrupt or fakeit is real and is
on solid footing for many years to come, and, with some
minor adjustments, the current Social Security System
should provide our citizens with their full benefits
under the law through the end of this century.
YOU CAN HELP. CONTACT YOUR SENATOR OR MEMBER OF CONGRESS
AND ASK THEM TO OPPOSE PRIVATIZATION AND SUPPORT REFORMS
THAT WILL TRULY GUARANTEE THE SOLVENCY OF THE SOCIAL
SECURITY SYSTEM.
Top...